A simple guide to the US election 2024
From the primaries to the Electoral College, here’s how to make sense of the 2024 US election.
With Election Day in the United States now less than a week away, here’s a quick overview of how the 2024 presidential voting process works.
Who can vote?
In the U.S., citizens must meet a few basic eligibility requirements to be able to vote. They must be:
- A US citizen
- A resident of the state where they registered to vote
- 18 years or older
Voter eligibility requirements can vary by state, especially regarding criminal convictions. In some states, individuals with a criminal record may face restrictions, including the possibility of permanently losing their right to vote.
Of the more than 230 million people eligible to vote in the U.S., only about 160 million are registered, and not all will cast a ballot. In the 2020 election, voter turnout was around 66 percent of eligible voters—the highest level in over a century.
How does the US election work?
U.S. politics is primarily dominated by two parties: the center-left Democrats, known for their liberal views, and the right-wing Republicans, known for their conservative stance. Each party fields potential candidates for the presidential nomination, which is determined through primary elections or caucuses held in each state. The final nominees are officially chosen at the Democratic and Republican National Conventions.
This election cycle features a contest between Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris and former Republican President Donald Trump. President Joe Biden had initially pursued re-election for a second term but withdrew in July after a challenging debate performance raised concerns about his ability to lead for another four years.
In addition to the major parties, there are also third-party and independent candidates, like Jill Stein of the Green Party, Chase Oliver of the Libertarian Party, and anti-war academic Cornel West.
During the election phase, each presidential candidate selects a running mate who would become vice president if they win. This year, Democrat and Minnesota Governor Tim Walz and Republican Ohio Senator JD Vance are the chosen running mates. Voters cast a single ballot for both president and vice president, with the final outcome determined through the Electoral College.
Since 1845, U.S. elections have taken place on the first Tuesday in November, though many states now allow early voting. So far, over 52 million votes have already been cast.
How does the Electoral College work?
To understand how Americans elect their president, it’s essential to grasp the role of the U.S. Electoral College.
Unlike members of Congress, who are elected directly by voters, the U.S. president is chosen indirectly. When Americans cast their ballots, they are actually voting for a slate of “electors” from their state who have pledged to vote for specific presidential and vice-presidential candidates. After all votes are counted and certified, these electors formally cast their votes based on the state’s popular vote outcome. The infographic below illustrates this process.
Curious about the Electoral College? Check out the short explainer video below or read the quick overview provided.
How many electoral votes does it take to win the election?
To win a U.S. presidential election, a candidate needs 270 electoral votes, a majority of the 538 total available.
This system can lead to unexpected results: a candidate may win the nationwide popular vote but still lose in the Electoral College. This has occurred five times in U.S. history, with the most recent example being in 2016 when Donald Trump won the presidency despite losing the popular vote to Hillary Clinton by nearly three million votes.
What are the polls saying?
As Election Day draws near, Harris and Trump are in a tight race, fiercely vying for control of crucial swing states. We are closely monitoring undecided voters in these areas, as they could ultimately influence the outcome in either direction.
According to FiveThirtyEight’s poll tracker, Harris has a slim national lead of 1.5 points, although Trump is closing in. A recent Reuters/Ipsos poll shows Harris ahead by only one point, which falls within the margin of error.
Trump holds an advantage on economic and immigration issues, while Harris's lead on political extremism is dwindling. In swing states such as Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Arizona, the margins are extremely close. While national polls tend to favor Harris, the Electoral College outcome remains uncertain, reflecting the unpredictability seen in past elections.
The outcome remains uncertain, and while it’s possible a winner will be announced on election night, it’s unlikely. Historically, a winner is usually declared on election night or the following morning.
As polls close across the country, results will start coming in from the Eastern Time Zone, with media outlets reporting in real-time. However, final results may be delayed, especially due to the high volume of mail-in and absentee ballots. Some states even allow ballots postmarked by Election Day to be counted if they arrive later, which can extend the process in closely contested states.
These delays might be leveraged by Trump to suggest the election was stolen, as he did in 2020 when late-arriving votes, which leaned Democratic, were counted. This trend is partly because Democrats generally have more urban support, where vote counting often takes longer, and also because Trump previously discouraged mail-in voting among his supporters.
If neither candidate reaches 270 electoral votes, the election moves to a contingent process. In this case, the House of Representatives elects the president, with each state casting one vote, while the Senate selects the vice president. A majority of 26 states is required for a candidate to win in the House—a scenario last seen in 1824 when John Quincy Adams was elected by the House after Andrew Jackson won both the popular and electoral votes but fell short of a majority.
What are the key dates to watch?
- Election Day: November 5 – Most Americans vote in person or by mail.
- Certification deadlines: November 6 – December 11 – States certify election results within this timeframe.
- Electoral College vote: December 17 – Electors meet to cast their official votes.
- Congress counts electoral votes: January 6, 2025 – Congress convenes to count and confirm electoral votes.
- Inauguration Day: January 20, 2025 – The president-elect is sworn in, marking the transition of power.
👏🏻👏🏻 nice
ReplyDeletePost a Comment