Why has Russia rejected Trump’s Ukraine truce plan?
Vladimir Putin and top Russian diplomat Sergey Lavrov have said a deferral of Ukraine’s NATO entry would not be enough.
By Tips & Tricks News Guide
Russia has rejected a proposal reportedly put forward by U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s team to resolve the Russia-Ukraine war by delaying Ukraine’s NATO membership in exchange for a ceasefire, according to Russian state media.
Trump’s victory in the November presidential election, coupled with his frequent criticism of Ukraine and U.S. financial support for Kyiv, as well as his pledge to end the war within 24 hours of taking office, has raised concerns among NATO allies about the potential concessions he might pressure Ukraine to make.
The Kremlin’s dismissal of what is reportedly a central component of Trump’s proposed truce highlights warnings from analysts who caution against assuming that Russia is guaranteed to secure an end to the war on its own terms.
So, what is Trump’s peace proposal for Ukraine? What has Russia rejected—and why?
What is Trump’s plan for Ukraine?
Trump has remained tight-lipped about the details of his plan. "I can’t share those plans because they won’t work if I do. Success depends partly on the element of surprise," he said during a podcast interview with Lex Fridman in September.
During his campaign, Trump pledged to end the Ukraine war within 24 hours. However, in a December 12 interview with Time magazine, he remarked, “The Middle East is an easier problem to handle than what’s happening with Russia and Ukraine.”
Trump and his key advisers have proposed various ideas for achieving a truce in Ukraine. Here’s what has emerged so far:
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Delay in NATO Membership: On November 6, The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported that Trump’s truce proposal includes postponing Ukraine’s NATO membership by 20 years, citing three sources close to him.
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Demilitarized Zone: Trump’s Vice President, JD Vance, outlined potential details during a September interview on The Shawn Ryan Show. He suggested establishing a demilitarized zone along the current line of demarcation between Russia and Ukraine, fortified to prevent future Russian invasions. According to the WSJ, this zone would span approximately 1,290 kilometers (800 miles). While enforcement mechanisms remain unclear, a Trump team member reportedly stated, “The barrel of the gun is going to be European.”
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Territorial Concessions: Vance indicated that Ukraine would need to cede some occupied territories to Russia under the plan, including parts of Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia. Since 2014, Russia has occupied roughly 20 percent of Ukraine’s territory.
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Special Envoy Appointment: On November 27, Trump appointed retired General Keith Kellogg as his special envoy for the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Earlier in April, Kellogg co-authored a strategy paper suggesting that U.S. military aid to Ukraine could continue, provided Kyiv agreed to participate in peace talks with Moscow.
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Sanctions Relief and NATO Freeze: Kellogg’s paper proposed pausing Ukraine’s NATO membership and offering Russia limited sanctions relief to encourage peace negotiations.
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Criticism of Ukrainian Strikes: In a Time magazine interview, Trump criticized Ukraine for recent missile attacks on Russian territory, calling them counterproductive and escalatory. “I disagree very vehemently with sending missiles hundreds of miles into Russia. Why are we doing that?” he said. This criticism followed Ukraine’s use of long-range U.S. and U.K.-manufactured weapons in late November, a move made after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy successfully lobbied for the restriction on such strikes to be lifted.
During his annual press conference on December 26, Russian President Vladimir Putin dismissed the notion that deferring Ukraine’s NATO membership would be an acceptable compromise for Moscow.
Putin noted that while he was unfamiliar with the specifics of Trump’s proposal, U.S. President Joe Biden had made a similar suggestion in 2021, proposing a 10-to-15-year delay in Ukraine’s admission to NATO. “In terms of historical distances and timeframes, this is a moment. What difference does it make to us—today, tomorrow, or in 10 years?” he rhetorically asked, according to a Kremlin transcript.
On Sunday, Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov reinforced Putin’s stance in an interview with the state-owned news agency TASS, rejecting elements of Trump’s reported plan. “We are certainly not satisfied with the proposals made by representatives of the president-elect’s team to postpone Ukraine’s membership in NATO for 20 years and to deploy a peacekeeping contingent of ‘UK and European forces’ in Ukraine,” Lavrov stated.
Lavrov also clarified that Russia has yet to receive any official “signals” from the U.S. regarding a resolution to the conflict. He emphasized that until Trump’s inauguration on January 20, only the outgoing Biden administration has the authority to engage with Moscow.
Meanwhile, on Thursday, Putin indicated that Russia is open to peace talks with Ukraine in Slovakia. The announcement followed his meeting with Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico in the Kremlin. Fico, who has been critical of the European Union’s military support for Ukraine, expressed willingness to host discussions.
But what will Russia do?
"Putin is bluffing; he wants a deal," said Timothy Ash, an associate fellow in the Russia and Eurasia program at Chatham House, a London-based think tank.
Speaking to News Guide, Ash explained that while Putin "will play hardball in the lead-up to talks, rejecting everything," he ultimately "needs a deal" because Russia cannot sustain a prolonged war given the heavy casualties. If Trump were to propose a deal allowing Russia to retain control over the Ukrainian territories it currently occupies — as suggested by JD Vance — Moscow, Ash argued, would likely agree.
"Trump is in a strong position, and Putin is in a weak position," Ash added. "The U.S. benefits from significant defense sales without suffering any casualties. Let’s hope Trump recognizes this advantage."
How has Ukraine reacted?
On December 7, Trump met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris. Following the trilateral meeting, Trump told the New York Post that Zelenskyy wanted a ceasefire. “He wants to make peace. We didn’t talk about the details,” Trump said.
Previously, Ukraine had maintained that any peace agreement must include the reversal of Russian annexations of Ukrainian territory, including Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014.
However, Zelenskyy appeared to adjust his position in a Sky News interview published on November 29. “If we want to stop the hot phase of the war, we need to bring the territory of Ukraine that we control under NATO’s umbrella,” he said. “We need to do it fast. Then, for the [occupied] territories of Ukraine, we can pursue their return through diplomatic means.”
“This represents a significant compromise by Zelenskyy on territorial issues,” Timothy Ash told News Guide at the time.
While NATO members have affirmed that Ukraine is on an "irreversible" path to joining the alliance, they remain cautious about admitting Ukraine while it is still at war with Russia. NATO’s mutual defense clause obligates all members to respond if one member is attacked, meaning Ukraine’s entry into the alliance would effectively place NATO at war with Russia.
With Russia rejecting any compromise involving a delayed NATO membership for Ukraine, it remains uncertain how Kyiv and Moscow might return to negotiations. NATO membership has been central to Zelenskyy’s proposed peace plan.
However, Ash suggested that Zelenskyy might be open to compromising on NATO membership as well. What he would not compromise on, Ash emphasized, is Ukraine’s security.
“Ukraine must be assured that under any agreement, Putin cannot simply invade again,” Ash said. “This requires either bilateral security guarantees from the West or ironclad commitments to provide Ukraine with all the tools needed for self-defense—similar to the arrangements with Israel or South Korea.”
Meanwhile, as Russian President Vladimir Putin and Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico fostered closer ties during their Moscow meeting last week, Zelenskyy criticized the Slovak government. On Saturday, he accused Fico of opening a “second energy front” against Kyiv at Moscow’s behest. Russian gas transits through Ukraine to Slovakia, Moldova, and Hungary under an agreement set to expire at the end of the year.
Following his visit with Putin, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico stated that Slovakia would consider retaliatory measures against Kyiv if gas transfers were halted on January 1, 2025.
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