US election results: When can we expect the final outcome?
As the US election approaches, we examine how the results will be processed and the potential timeline.
The United States presidential election is only days away, and Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are intensifying their campaigns in key swing states, where every vote could be decisive.
As Election Day nears, here’s what to anticipate and how the results might play out.
When is the US election?
The election is set for Tuesday, November 5, 2024.
In most states, polling stations will open between 7:00 a.m. and 9:00 a.m. local time. With the U.S. covering multiple time zones, this corresponds to 11:00 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. GMT.
At what time does the polling end?
Poll closing times vary across states and, in some cases, even between counties.
Most polling stations, however, will close between 6:00 p.m. and midnight Eastern Time (23:00 to 04:00 GMT).
When does the US vote counting begin, and when can we expect the results?
Results are expected to start coming in just hours after the first polls close at 6:00 p.m. Eastern Time (23:00 GMT). However, some states will report their counts faster than others. With polls in western states closing several hours later, initial results from those areas will be delayed—by which time some eastern states may already be called for either Harris or Trump.
In a close race, counting could extend well past election night, potentially leaving the outcome uncertain for days.
“It’s really close,” says Raymond J. La Raja, a political science professor at the University of Massachusetts Amherst.
As of Friday, FiveThirtyEight’s National Polls tracker shows Harris with a narrow national lead of about 1.2 points.
Who’s ahead in the national polls?
Kamala Harris currently has a 1-percentage-point lead, according to FiveThirtyEight's national presidential poll tracker.
Source: 538/ABC News | Last updated: November 1, 2024 at 16:00 GMT (12:00 ET)
La Raja noted, however, that polls may not fully capture certain voter groups, which could lead to unexpected results for either candidate. "If the polls are off and the race isn’t as close as anticipated, we’ll know pretty quickly," he added.
"But I guess we won’t know the outcome in the first few days."
"It's so close that a candidate might not concede... so get ready with coffee and tea; it could be a long night that stretches into several days."
What do we know about the swing states?
Seven swing states are expected to play a decisive role in the outcome of the presidential race. These critical states—Pennsylvania (19 Electoral votes), North Carolina (16), Georgia (16), Michigan (15), Arizona (11), Wisconsin (10), and Nevada (6)—hold a combined total of 93 Electoral College votes. To win the election, a candidate must secure at least 270 of the 538 available Electoral votes. Polls in these states will close between 7:00 p.m. and 10:00 p.m. Eastern Time (12:00 to 3:00 a.m. GMT).
Some of the earliest results are expected to come from Georgia, where state law mandates that all early votes be counted and reported by 8:00 p.m. Eastern Time (1:00 a.m. GMT) on election night.
Next is North Carolina, where votes will be counted and reported throughout the evening, with complete results anticipated by midnight (4:00 a.m. GMT).
In 2020, Nevada experienced delays, with the state not being called until five days after election day. However, changes in regulations have streamlined the process, so results are expected to come in more quickly this time. Nevertheless, the final results may still take several days to determine due to the allowance of late-arriving mail ballots.
Pennsylvania, a crucial battleground state, also did not have a clear winner until four days after the 2020 election. It is one of the few states that do not permit election workers to begin processing mail ballots until Election Day, indicating that results may take several days to finalize.
Who is in the lead in swing state polls?
In the seven battleground states, neither Harris nor Trump have a definitive lead as polls in these states are very tight.
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