Trump signals hard line on China with hawkish cabinet picks
US president-elect’s picks for top roles in the incoming administration lean heavily on China hawks.
United States President-elect Donald Trump is assembling his new administration with figures known for their hardline stance on China, indicating a tough approach toward Beijing on national security and trade issues.
On Tuesday, Trump nominated former Director of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe to lead the CIA, FOX News host and army veteran Pete Hegseth as Secretary of Defense, and Florida Congressman Michael Waltz as National Security Adviser.
On Monday, the president-elect selected New York Congresswoman Elise Stefanik as his nominee for United Nations ambassador.
Meanwhile, Florida Senator Marco Rubio is widely expected to be chosen as Secretary of State.
All five appointees are known for seeing U.S.-China relations as a stark power struggle and for advocating a tough stance on Beijing.
On Tuesday, Trump also appointed Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk and biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy to head a newly established “Department of Government Efficiency.”
In contrast to others in Trump’s cabinet, Musk, who has extensive business interests in China, is known for his comparatively favorable views toward the Chinese government.
Former Director of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe testifies before a hearing on Capitol Hill in Washington, DC, on April 18, 2023
Other prominent China hawks rumored as potential additions to Trump’s administration include former Ambassador to Germany Richard Grenell, Tennessee Senator Bill Hagerty, and former U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer.
According to a Wall Street Journal report on Tuesday, citing sources familiar with the matter, Trump plans to name Lighthizer as his "trade czar."
Lighthizer played a key role in Trump’s first-term trade war, helping to design tariffs on $380 billion of Chinese goods. He may again take on a similar role if Trump moves forward with his campaign promise to impose tariffs of 60 percent or higher on Chinese imports and 10-20 percent on other foreign goods.
In his book *No Trade is Free: Changing Course, Taking on China, and Helping America’s Workers*, Lighthizer advocates for further “decoupling” from China by limiting trade, especially in critical technologies.
In a recent op-ed for *The Financial Times*, Lighthizer criticized other nations for “adopting industrial policies not aimed at raising their standard of living, but at boosting exports to accumulate assets abroad and gain dominance in leading-edge industries.”
“These are not the market forces of [Adam] Smith and [David] Ricardo," Lighthizer wrote, referencing the renowned British economists. "These are ‘beggar-thy-neighbor’ policies condemned early in the last century."
Trump’s proposed tariffs are expected to impact not only China but also ripple through Asia due to the region's close economic ties with the world's second-largest economy.
Analysts at the London School of Economics and Political Science estimate that Trump’s tariffs could lead to a 0.68 percent reduction in China’s GDP, with smaller effects on neighboring countries such as India and Indonesia, whose economies could shrink by 0.03 and 0.06 percent, respectively.
Trump’s potential return to the White House also coincides with escalating tensions between China and Taiwan, the self-governing island that Beijing claims as its own.
Former U.S. Indo-Pacific Command chief Admiral Philip Davidson has projected that China’s military could be capable of invading Taiwan by 2027, which would fall within Trump’s term.
In this context, many of Trump’s key appointees appear poised to steer Washington toward a confrontational stance with Beijing.
Senator Marco Rubio speaks during a campaign rally for Donald Trump in Raleigh, North Carolina on November 4, 2024
If confirmed as Secretary of State, Rubio would become the first sitting top U.S. diplomat to have been sanctioned by Beijing.
As vice chairman of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence and a senior member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Rubio is a vocal critic of the Chinese government. He was banned from China in 2020 for remarks about the treatment of ethnic minorities in Xinjiang and was among 11 U.S. officials sanctioned in retaliation for U.S. measures against Beijing's crackdown in Hong Kong.
Ahead of his re-election in the 2022 midterms, Rubio was reportedly a target of Chinese influence efforts, as noted in an October report by the Microsoft Threat Analysis Center.
Rubio is also a strong supporter of Taiwan, a position he is expected to uphold as Secretary of State, analysts say.
“It’s hard to envision Marco Rubio supporting the U.S. pivot away from Taiwan, overseeing a détente between the U.S. and China, or backing any arrangement that sidelines America’s commitment to democratic values,” Bethany Allen, head of China Investigations and Analysis at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, told *Al Jazeera*.
As Trump’s nominee to lead the CIA, Ratcliffe, who previously served as Director of National Intelligence, is expected to focus on the perceived security threat from China.
In a 2020 *Wall Street Journal* op-ed, the former Texas congressman called China the “greatest threat to America today, and the greatest threat to democracy and freedom worldwide since World War II.” While past intelligence priorities centered on the Soviet Union and counterterrorism, Ratcliffe emphasized that “current circumstances make clear that China should be America’s primary national security focus.”
Hegseth, Trump’s nominee for Secretary of Defense, has echoed similar concerns about the extent of the Chinese threat.
An Army National Guard veteran, Hegseth is an unusual choice for Secretary of Defense, lacking the typical background of a retired general or high-level government official with extensive national security experience. However, he has taken a strong stance on China in various media appearances.
In a recent interview on *The Shawn Ryan Show* on YouTube, Hegseth argued that China is “building an army specifically dedicated to defeating the United States” and leveraging its dominance in tech and manufacturing to expand global influence. He asserted that China aims to control Taiwan’s semiconductor industry, which produces a major share of the world’s advanced chips.
“They have a full-spectrum, long-term view of not just regional but global domination,” Hegseth stated. “The only way they can implement a structure that serves them is by defeating us. They are ambitious enough to plan for it.”
Fellow veteran Michael Waltz, a retired Green Beret with service in Afghanistan and Africa, has similarly described China as an “existential threat.” Trump has praised Waltz as “an expert on the threats posed by China, Russia, Iran, and global terrorism.”
In his book *Hard Truths: Think and Lead Like a Green Beret*, Waltz argued that the U.S. must enhance its military preparedness for a potential conflict with Beijing.
Waltz has also publicly urged Taiwan to increase its defense spending, which is projected to reach 2.45 percent of GDP by 2025.
“We must learn from Ukraine by addressing the threat of the CCP [Chinese Communist Party] and arming Taiwan NOW before it’s too late. That’s why I asked State & DoD [Department of Defense] officials for a timeline and specifics on how we plan to bolster Taiwan’s self-defense capabilities,” he posted on X last year.
His views align with those of Trump, who advocated on the campaign trail for Taiwanese defense spending to rise to 10 percent of GDP.
“Waltz is a staunch China hawk and has stressed the importance of defending Taiwan,” said Benjamin A. Engel, a visiting professor at Dankook University in South Korea, in an interview with *Tips & Tricks News Guide*.
“He appears to believe that strengthening alliances is key to countering China and has been a strong advocate for improving relations with India for this purpose,” Engel said.
Trump’s picks are likely to be “somewhat welcome news” for allies like Japan and South Korea, Engel noted, “but less appealing to many Southeast Asian nations, who would prefer not to be forced into choosing between the two great powers.”
Elon Musk speaks before Trump at a campaign rally at Madison Square Garden in New York on October 27, 2024
Among these hawks, Musk is notable as one of the few figures in Trump’s orbit with a more favorable stance toward China.
As CEO of Tesla, Musk has significant business interests in China, including a gigafactory in Shanghai. China is Tesla’s second-largest market after the U.S.
Given his business ties, Musk may resist further U.S. efforts to "decouple" from China.
Musk has faced criticism from human rights advocates and U.S. lawmakers, including Rubio, for his dealings with China. Notably, in 2022, he opened a showroom in Xinjiang, a region where Beijing is accused of committing human rights abuses against Uighur ethnic minorities.
The tech mogul has met with top Chinese officials multiple times, including with then-Foreign Minister Qin Gang in 2023 and Premier Li Qiang, China’s No. 2 official, in April of this year.
Some of Musk’s reported comments on China sharply contrast with the hawkish views held by other members of Trump’s inner circle.
In Walter Isaacson’s 2023 biography of Musk, the billionaire allegedly told journalist Bari Weiss that there were “two sides” to China’s treatment of the Uighurs and cautioned that his social media platform X would “have to be careful about the words it used regarding China because Tesla’s business could be threatened.”
In a 2022 interview with *The Financial Times*, Musk sparked controversy by suggesting that Taiwan should become a “special administrative zone” of China, similar to Hong Kong and Macau.
“My recommendation… would be to figure out a special administrative zone for Taiwan that is reasonably palatable, probably won’t make everyone happy. And it’s possible, and I think probably, in fact, that they could have an arrangement that’s more lenient than Hong Kong,” he said.
He reiterated these views later that year during an appearance at the All-In tech summit in Los Angeles, stating that Taiwan was an “integral” part of China and would not exist without the support of the U.S. Pacific Fleet.
Some of Washington’s Asian allies may be uneasy about Trump’s choice of Stefanik as UN ambassador, said Ian Chong, an assistant professor of political science at the National University of Singapore.
Stefanik has criticized the CCP for “blatant and malicious election interference” and for infiltrating university campuses, while also calling for a “complete reassessment” of U.S. funding for the UN due to the body’s criticism of Israel’s actions in Gaza.
Chong noted that while Stefanik aligns with Trump’s “America first” ideology, her appointment could create tensions with U.S. allies who continue to support the UN.
He also pointed out that given Trump’s unpredictable leadership style, his appointments may not endure throughout his four-year term. Trump’s first administration was marked by high turnover, with the former president replacing three chiefs of staff, three secretaries of homeland security, and two defense chiefs.
“Even with someone like Rubio, his ability to work with Taiwan or other U.S. East Asian allies might be somewhat limited,” Chong told *Al Jazeera*.
“We also saw in the previous administration that Trump tends to cycle through his officials quickly,” he added.
“We’ll need to watch for who comes in during the second, third, or fourth rounds and how long the current appointees stay,” Chong continued.
“Even if we know the lineup heading into January, there’s still an element of uncertainty, as that’s how Trump operates,” he concluded.
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