Trump’s Win Is Likely to Prolong Gaza Talks Uncertainty
Analysts suggest that significant progress on a ceasefire is unlikely until after the January inauguration. Gazans expressed mixed feelings about whether Mr. Trump would take substantial steps to end the conflict.
New York after the election. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has welcomed Donald J. Trump’s win, but it is unclear how Mr. Trump might rearrange the regional chessboard.
Nov. 7, 2024Updated 9:59 a.m. ET
Donald J. Trump’s election victory has cast further uncertainty over efforts to achieve a ceasefire in Gaza, following a year of unsuccessful attempts by the Biden administration stymied by unyielding demands from both Israel and Hamas.
For months, leaders across the region—including those in Israel, Lebanon, Gaza, and Qatar—have adopted a wait-and-see stance regarding the U.S. election. While it remains unclear what actions might come next, analysts suggest that any substantial progress on a ceasefire, if it occurs at all, is likely to be delayed until Mr. Trump’s inauguration in January.
“There was a sense that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was waiting for the outcome of the U.S. presidential election before making any moves,” said Michael Stephens, a Middle East expert at the Royal United Services Institute in London. “Why would he concede anything to Biden now?”
Since the war began, over 43,000 people in Gaza have lost their lives, including thousands of women and children, according to health officials in the enclave. Many Gazans remain skeptical about whether Mr. Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris will significantly improve their situation. The war followed a Hamas-led attack last October, in which Israeli authorities reported that around 1,200 people were killed in Israel, and approximately 250 were taken hostage.
The Biden administration had encouraged both sides to resolve their remaining differences and agree to a three-stage truce. Under this proposed accord, Israel would end its operations against Hamas, withdraw from Gaza, and release Palestinian prisoners, while Hamas would release the 101 hostages still in captivity. (Hamas had previously rejected proposals for a short-term truce, insisting on a full end to the war as a prerequisite for any deal.)
Prime Minister Netanyahu welcomed Mr. Trump’s election, as Trump had been a strong supporter of Israel during his first term. Netanyahu was among the first to congratulate Trump, speaking with him on Wednesday evening. According to a statement from the Israeli prime minister’s office, the two agreed “to work together for the sake of Israel’s security.”
However, how Mr. Trump may reshape the situation remains uncertain. He has voiced strong support for Israel’s right to defend itself after the Oct. 7 attacks but has also called for Israel to “finish up” the campaign—a stance that could conflict with hard-line factions in Israel’s government who favor indefinite control over Gaza.
“I’m not going to start a war,” Mr. Trump assured supporters in his victory speech. “I’m going to stop wars.”
Mr. Netanyahu and Mr. Trump in the White House in 2020. Mr. Netanyahu was among the first international leaders to congratulate Mr. Trump on his re-election.
Even Hamas, the Palestinian militant group, appeared to keep its options open regarding how Mr. Trump might act in office. “Our stance on the new American administration will depend on its positions and practical policy toward the Palestinian people and their legitimate rights,” Hamas stated on Wednesday.
In Gaza, opinions on Thursday were mixed about whether Mr. Trump would be willing or able to help broker a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas.
“I believe Trump will prioritize economic growth and strategic deals with Arab countries,” said Muhanned al-Farra, 38, who owned an auto repair shop in Rafah, southern Gaza, before relocating with his family to Khan Younis. “I hope his election brings positive change.”
Others were less optimistic. Mohammed al-Amassi, 28, who fled from Gaza City to Deir al-Balah earlier in the conflict, feared that “grim times” lay ahead. He pointed to Trump’s record of supporting Israel, expressing concern that a new term might see him “leaning even further in Israel’s direction, with no regard for the aspirations of Palestinians in Gaza or the West Bank.”
For now, Mr. Trump’s election seems to relieve some immediate pressure on Prime Minister Netanyahu to pursue a truce in Gaza under President Biden's and regional mediators' proposed terms.
Prime Minister Netanyahu has resisted months of efforts by Biden administration officials to support the proposed ceasefire, refusing to commit to a permanent end to the conflict and insisting on maintaining Israeli control of Gaza’s border with Egypt—positions Hamas has rejected.
With Mr. Biden now officially a lame-duck president, those diplomatic efforts are likely to lose momentum, according to Mr. Stephens.
“I don’t see how the Biden administration would have the leverage to make this work, and I’m not sure the Israelis—or at least Netanyahu—are that interested in pushing it forward,” he said.
*Correction made Nov. 7, 2024: An earlier version of this article misstated Benjamin Netanyahu’s role as Israel’s president rather than its prime minister.*
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