Trump vs Harris: Who is leading in US election polls?
Al Jazeera tracks the latest polls with less than a month before US voters choose a new president on November 5.
The U.S. election campaign is entering its final weeks, and voters will head to the polls on November 5 to choose the next president.
Early voting has begun in several states, including key battlegrounds like North Carolina and Georgia.
With less than three weeks until the election, Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican former President Donald Trump are intensifying efforts to win over undecided voters.
However, the popular vote alone doesn’t decide the outcome. It determines which electors will represent each state in the Electoral College, which ultimately selects the president.
A candidate needs 270 of the 538 available electoral votes to win. These votes are allocated to states based on their population size.
Who is in the lead?
According to FiveThirtyEight’s daily election poll tracker, Harris is currently ahead in the national polls, holding a 2.1-point lead over Trump.
Who’s ahead in the national polls?
Kamala Harris currently has a 2.1-percentage-point lead, according to FiveThirtyEight's national presidential poll tracker.
In July, President Joe Biden, a Democrat, withdrew from the presidential race and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris as his successor. Since then, Harris's approval ratings have climbed from the lower numbers she held under Biden.
However, the race remains close. FiveThirtyEight’s election forecast shows Harris with a 54% chance of winning, while Trump has a 46% chance.
Which states could swing the presidential election?
Swing states, also known as battleground states, play a pivotal role in determining the outcome of a national election.
These states are characterized by their unpredictable political leanings, where neither party holds a dominant advantage.
This year, key swing states under close scrutiny include Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
In the 2020 presidential election, Georgia shifted from Republican red to Democratic blue for the first time in nearly three decades, while Democrats narrowly won Arizona by just 0.3 percentage points.
Polls now indicate a tight race between Trump and Harris in these critical swing states. These state-level polls are more crucial than national polls in predicting the winner, as the president is chosen by the Electoral College, not the popular vote.
Who is in the lead in swing state polls?
What happens if Harris and Trump end in a tie?
The Electoral College consists of 538 votes and a candidate needs 270 to win the election.
Due to how these votes are distributed, certain combinations of state results could lead to a 269-269 tie. While unlikely, it's a possible outcome.
If no candidate secures at least 270 electoral votes, a contingent election is held in which the U.S. House of Representatives selects the president. In this process, each state delegation casts one vote, and a candidate must win a majority—26 out of 50 state votes—to be declared the winner.
In this scenario, the U.S. Senate would select the vice president, with each senator casting one vote. A simple majority of 51 votes is needed to secure the win.
How do polls work?
Election polls estimate how the public might vote by surveying a sample of voters, typically through phone or online surveys, though some are conducted by mail or in person.
Poll trackers aggregate multiple polls and weigh them based on various factors, including sample size, pollster quality, how recent the poll is, and the methodologies used.
How accurate are polls?
Polls are never completely accurate, and both the 2016 and 2020 U.S. elections saw opinion polls underestimate Republican candidates' support. Although polling for the 2022 midterms was more precise, skepticism around poll results remains.
One reason for recent polling inaccuracies is the challenge of reaching voters. Many polls rely on telephone surveys, but fewer people are willing to answer calls. Nonresponse bias also plays a role—particularly as some Trump voters have chosen not to participate in polls. Additionally, unexpected changes in voter turnout, like the higher-than-anticipated turnout in 2020, have impacted polling accuracy.
A mathematical margin of error is inherent in polls since they rely on small, selected groups to estimate the preferences of a larger population. This margin of error in U.S. polls indicates the range within which the actual results are likely to fall. For a sample size of 1,000 people, the margin of error is approximately plus or minus 3 percent.
Many polls conducted before this year’s presidential election have shown the support difference between Harris and Trump falling within this margin of error.
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