Russia signals its official stance on using nuclear weapons is about to change, accusing the West of ‘escalation’
- Russia indicates a potential shift in its official position on nuclear weapons, accusing the West of escalating tensions.
- Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov announced on Sunday that Russia is revising its nuclear doctrine, which outlines the conditions for nuclear weapon use, due to what it perceives as the West's role in escalating the conflict in Ukraine.
Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a plenary session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 7, 2024.
Russia has once again suggested that it may be revising its official stance on the use of nuclear weapons, as Ukraine continues its incursions into the Kursk border region.
On Sunday, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov stated that Russia is actively working on amending its nuclear doctrine, which defines the conditions for nuclear weapon use, in response to what it perceives as a Western-backed escalation of the conflict with Ukraine.
Russia has accused the West of supporting Ukraine’s cross-border raids, which have resulted in the seizure of nearly 500 square miles of Russian territory since August 6. NATO allies of Ukraine, however, deny any prior knowledge or involvement in the offensive.
Speaking to the state media agency TASS on Sunday, Ryabkov said that the revisions to Russia’s nuclear doctrine are "at an advanced stage."
“There is a clear direction to make adjustments, informed by the study and analysis of conflict developments in recent years, including the escalation driven by our Western opponents in connection with the special military operation,” Ryabkov said, referencing Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine.
He did not provide a timeline for the finalization of these changes, noting that "the time for completing this work is a rather difficult question, given that we are addressing the most critical aspects of our national security," according to comments translated by Google.
Conditions of use
Russia's nuclear rhetoric is not new, but Ryabkov’s recent remarks, which align with statements from other senior officials and the Kremlin, suggest that Russia is laying the groundwork for potential changes to its policy on the conditions under which nuclear weapons might be used.
Ukraine's incursions into Russian territory and its targeting of military facilities and infrastructure with Western-supplied weaponry, particularly long-range missiles, have intensified the question of whether Moscow might consider using nuclear weapons to defend its own territory.
Currently, Russia’s nuclear doctrine allows for the use of nuclear weapons in response to a nuclear attack or other weapons of mass destruction against Russia and/or its allies. It also permits the use of nuclear weapons in the event of conventional aggression against Russia, if the state’s very existence is threatened.
Additional conditions that might prompt Russia to use nuclear weapons include "receiving reliable information about the launch of ballistic missiles targeting the Russian Federation and/or its allies" and "the enemy's impact on critically important state or military facilities," according to a translated version of the document.
Despite these conditions, Russia's 2020 policy characterized nuclear weapons as "a means of deterrence," with their use being described as "an extreme and necessary measure." The doctrine was referred to as "defensive in nature," emphasizing that Russia "makes every effort to reduce the nuclear threat and prevent the escalation of interstate tensions that could lead to military conflicts, including nuclear ones."
Since the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin has consistently reiterated that Moscow would not hesitate to use nuclear weapons if its territorial integrity and sovereignty were threatened.
In May, Russia conducted tactical nuclear weapons drills near the Ukrainian border and has also deployed such weapons in the territory of its ally, Belarus.
Military vehicles of Russia’s Leningrad military district units drive along a road during the second stage of tactical nuclear drills of the armed forces of Russia and Belarus at an undisclosed location, in this still image from a video released June 12, 2024.
Tactical, or non-strategic, nuclear weapons are designed for use on the battlefield to eliminate specific targets, such as military bases or training centers. Although they are less destructive than strategic nuclear weapons, which can annihilate entire cities, their deployment would mark a significant escalation in the conflict and heighten fears of a direct confrontation with the West.
President Putin has indicated a willingness to revise the conditions under which these weapons might be used. In June, he described Russia's nuclear doctrine as a "living instrument" that could be adjusted as needed.
"We need to clarify what constitutes the use or non-use [of nuclear weapons], as well as specific scenarios in which they can be deployed. Our nuclear doctrine clearly states that nuclear weapons can only be used in exceptional cases—when there is a threat to the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the country," Putin said during the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum in June.
"I do not believe that this moment has arrived—there is no such necessity. However, this doctrine is a living instrument, and we are closely monitoring global developments. We do not rule out the possibility of making changes to it," Putin added.
Incursion urgency
Since Ukraine's ambitious cross-border raid into Russia's Kursk region nearly a month ago, Russia has seemingly been preparing both domestic and international audiences for potential changes to its nuclear weapons policy.
In August, Russia's foreign minister, his deputy, and the Kremlin's spokesperson all indicated that an announcement regarding these changes would be made soon.
This raises concerns about whether Russia might be considering the deployment of nuclear weapons against Ukraine in a hasty response to an operation that has both embarrassed the Kremlin and exposed vulnerabilities in Russia’s national defenses.
"Russian military doctrine has always justified the use of nuclear weapons if Russia's territorial integrity is threatened. The scope for Russian retaliation is quite broad," said David Roche, president of Quantum Strategy, in an analysis from August.
Roche described Ukraine’s offensive in Kursk as a “game changer,” suggesting that it could increase the likelihood of nuclear confrontation, as it undermines NATO's efforts to avoid escalation.
"By invading Russia, Ukraine has effectively dismantled most of the lower rungs on the escalation ladder that the Alliance, particularly the U.S., sought to maintain," Roche observed.
Despite its unprovoked invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Russia has framed the conflict as an existential struggle, accusing the West of supporting Ukraine in an attempt to destroy Russia. NATO allies of Ukraine reject this claim, stating that their ongoing military aid is intended to defend Ukraine's territorial sovereignty and independence.
Ukrainian officials hope that their incursion, which has crossed one of the Kremlin's so-called "red lines," will dispel Western fears that Putin might resort to using nuclear weapons. They also believe it could encourage more NATO allies to approve the use of longer-range missiles against targets within Russia.
Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) downplayed Ryabkov’s remarks, stating on Sunday evening that “Russian officials continue to engage in routine nuclear saber-rattling in an effort to encourage the West to self-deter and reduce its support for Ukraine.”
The ISW noted, “Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov claimed on September 1 that Russia will revise its nuclear doctrine based on recent conflicts and the West’s alleged escalation in Ukraine, but he did not provide any timelines for these changes."
The ISW further assessed that Ryabkov did not specify what these changes might entail, adding that "Russia remains highly unlikely to use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine or engage in nuclear confrontation elsewhere.”
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