hurricane watch

 Florida braces for potential heavy-hitting hurricane threatening damaging winds and storm surge

Florida is preparing for what could be the strongest hurricane to hit the U.S. this season, as a growing cluster of thunderstorms in the Caribbean strengthens. The storm is expected to bring life-threatening storm surges and hurricane-force winds to the Southeast later this week.

Forecasters predict the system will rapidly intensify into Hurricane Helene as it moves toward the coast, bringing destructive winds, heavy rain, and storm surges deeper into the Southeast before making landfall in Florida, according to the National Hurricane Center. The storm is currently labeled Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine.

A hurricane watch has been issued for Florida's Gulf Coast, stretching from Englewood to Indian Pass, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor, as per the 5 a.m. update from the hurricane center. Tropical storm watches are also in effect, covering areas from Indian Pass to the Walton-Bay County line, and from north of Bonita Beach to Englewood.

A tropical storm watch was issued Monday afternoon for Florida's Dry Tortugas and parts of the Florida Keys, followed by another watch Monday evening from Bonita Beach to Flamingo.

In response to the approaching storm, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency for 41 of the state’s 67 counties to accelerate preparations and streamline coordination between state and local governments.

With limited time to prepare, Tampa General Hospital began installing a 10-foot flood barrier around its facility on Monday, anticipating potential storm surges and shifts in the storm's path.

At that time, the storm was a large system of showers and thunderstorms swirling over the far western Caribbean Sea. The National Hurricane Center expects it to rapidly intensify, likely becoming a hurricane by Wednesday night and reaching Category 3 strength.

The last Category 3 hurricane to hit the U.S. was Idalia, which made landfall in Florida last August with winds of 125 mph, causing a record-breaking storm surge from Tampa to the Big Bend area.

Idalia had undergone rapid intensification over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico, with its sustained winds increasing by 55 mph within just 24 hours.

While the National Hurricane Center currently projects landfall in Florida’s Big Bend region, CNN meteorologist Mary Gilbert warns that residents from Florida’s Gulf Coast to eastern Louisiana should remain on high alert this week.

Strong, potentially damaging winds and life-threatening storm surge are expected near the storm's eventual landfall. The system will also stir up dangerous seas in the Gulf, leading to rough surf and hazardous rip currents across much of the region, particularly later in the week.

Tracking Nine

“Strengthening is expected over the next few days, with the system forecast to become a hurricane by Wednesday and continue intensifying on Thursday as it moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico,” the National Hurricane Center reported in a Monday 11 p.m. advisory.

Confidence in the storm's exact path will improve after it fully develops, as forecast models struggle to predict its movement without a well-defined center.

Meanwhile, this system is set to bring heavy, potentially flood-inducing rainfall to parts of Central America, Mexico, Cuba, and Jamaica as it organizes. Hurricane and tropical storm watches are already in effect for regions of Mexico and Cuba.

“Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will deliver heavy rains to portions of the western Caribbean, causing significant flooding and mudslides in western Cuba,” according to the National Hurricane Center.

In a 5 p.m. ET forecast discussion on Monday, the center warned that the storm’s development over the record-warm Gulf of Mexico could have widespread impacts on the U.S.

"Storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will extend far beyond the storm's center, particularly to its eastern side. Additionally, the storm’s fast forward speed as it approaches landfall could push gusty winds farther inland across the southeastern U.S.," the center stated.

Heavy rainfall is expected across much of the Southeast starting midweek. The Weather Prediction Center has issued a level 2 of 4 risk for flooding on Thursday, covering much of Florida, Georgia, Alabama, and parts of the Carolinas.

By Friday, Hurricane Helene could bring strong winds and torrential rain to Georgia and the Carolinas, potentially leading to dangerous flooding and widespread power outages.

“Heavy rainfall is likely to cause significant flash and urban flooding in parts of Florida, with isolated flooding possible across the Southeast, Southern Appalachians, and the Tennessee Valley from Wednesday through Friday. Minor to moderate river flooding may also occur,” the National Hurricane Center warned.

Helene would be the fourth hurricane to make landfall in the U.S. this year, and the fifth to strike Florida since 2022.

These repeated hits have pushed Florida's insurance market to a breaking point, with insurers withdrawing from the state due to the rising risks of extreme weather driven by climate change.