Iran Nuclear Weapons

 Experts warn that Iran could declare itself a nuclear power by the end of the year. 

They also pointed out that even major nuclear powers have faced attacks in recent decades.

Military experts have said that Iran could potentially declare itself a nuclear power this year, especially with the uncertainty surrounding the United States' political future amid a closely contested presidential election. 

"I think that's a real possibility," said James Carafano, vice president of foreign and defense policy studies at The Heritage Foundation. "If I were the Iranians and planning to do it, now would be the time because Biden is unlikely to respond.

"The Israelis are preoccupied, and it will be months before Trump, if he wins, assumes office. By then, Iran would have established itself as a nuclear power, and the situation would be much harder to change."

"He's not going to start World War III, right?" Carafano added. "He's not going to come in on day one and bomb Iran. They know that, and they're counting on it."

THE PENTAGON HAS NOTED A "DEEPENING COOPERATION AND RELATIONSHIP" BETWEEN RUSSIA AND IRAN

Throughout the past year, the Biden administration has repeatedly warned that Iran is nearing the capability to develop a nuclear weapon. In July, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated at the Aspen Security Forum that Iran is "probably one or two weeks away" from reaching the "breakout capacity" to produce fissile material for a nuclear weapon.

Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei meets with Iran's acting President Mohammad Mokhber and cabinet members at the Imam Khomeini Husseiniya in Tehran, Iran, July 7, 2024.  (Iranian Leader Press Office/Handout/Anadolu via Getty Images)

Blinken attributed Iran's accelerated nuclear development to the collapse of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), commonly known as the Iran Nuclear Deal. He emphasized that the U.S. had not seen any evidence indicating that Iran already possesses a nuclear weapon, according to Barron's.

A U.S. State Department spokesperson told Fox News Digital, "We are committed to never letting Iran obtain a nuclear weapon, and we are prepared to use all elements of national power to ensure that outcome."

Carafano argued that the uncertainty surrounding the U.S. presidential election, especially with President Biden's lame-duck status after deciding not to seek a second term, has provided Iran with a significant opportunity.

"It doesn't even matter if they can actually deploy a nuclear weapon," Carafano explained. "They can simply declare it, and everyone would panic. They could say, 'We’re a nuclear power now, and we’ll defend ourselves with nuclear weapons.' And it’s even more alarming if people believe they genuinely have the capability to do so.

"Once you’re a nuclear state, there’s this perceived notion of having a ‘forcefield’ around you, like the Starship Enterprise," Carafano added. "Given the timing, would the Israelis attack? They're preoccupied right now. What's Biden going to do? He’s unlikely to act between now and the election, and if Trump wins, it’ll be months before he takes office."

This picture shows a replica of Iran's Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant at an exhibition at the International Conference on Nuclear Science and Technology in Isfahan on May 6, 2024. (Atta Kenare/AFP via Getty Images)

Retired Lt. Gen. Charles Moore of the U.S. Air Force agreed with Carafano's assessment, calling it a "distinct possibility." However, he emphasized the limited impact of merely declaring nuclear capabilities, stating, "Declaring yourself a nuclear power and actually being able to effectively deploy and use a nuclear weapon are two entirely different things."

"I think it's reasonable to assume that if Iran were to make such a declaration or during the final steps of testing a weapon and preparing it for deployment, we would likely see Israel and/or the United States take action to prevent it," Moore added.

Carafano acknowledged that, in the long run, nuclear weapons primarily serve as a deterrent against other nuclear powers. He pointed to examples like the September 11 terrorist attacks and Russia's recent invasion of Ukraine, where Ukraine has not only resisted but also pushed into Russian territory.

"Nuclear weapons have very limited utility, mainly to deter nuclear conflict with another nuclear power," Carafano said. "But beyond that... if you can't win a conventional war, you don't start a nuclear war, right? It's not a get-out-of-jail-free card for the Iranians. And five seconds after they declare themselves a nuclear power, the Saudis, Turks, Egyptians, and others will want to follow suit."

This file photo released Nov. 5, 2019, by the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, shows centrifuge machines in the Natanz uranium enrichment plant in central Iran. (Atomic Energy Organization of Iran via AP, File)

Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, stated that Iran's strategy of nuclear incrementalism "has shifted to significant nuclear advancements under Khamenei during Biden's presidency." He speculated that "Tehran may be looking to solidify or safeguard these gains in case Trump returns to office."

"Lest we forget, Iran initially sought to achieve a nuclear fait accompli before its activities were uncovered in 2002," Taleblu noted. "Tehran pursued a rapid program aimed at producing a small number of nuclear weapons, hoping to gain both status and security."

He added, "At its core, weaponization is a political decision, but it involves a series of technical steps. The choice to pursue either can be influenced by Western policy, for better or worse."